The market`s not `bearish enough` on oil
August 17, 2015, 7:55 am

It`s no secret commodities are in a free fall.

Gold, crude oil, copper and silver are all trading at or near multiyear lows, and according to one technician, there`s even more pain to come.

"The commodity sector is on its way down from the bursting of the largest commodity bubble in the history of the world," Walter Zimmermann said Thursday on CNBC`s "Futures Now."

But this doesn`t come as a surprise to Zimmermann, who explained that a "major fire sale in commodity prices" happens every 15 years. "The next low is not due until the second half of 2016," he said.

Zimmermann noted that this cycle comes in many phases, beginning with a "stealth" phase, peaking with "manic" buying and ending with panic selling, which is what he says the market has experienced for the better part of the past year. "The more damaging the bust, the longer it takes for the commodity sector to carve out a bottom and start trending higher again," he said.

And he believes the biggest casualty of the cycle in the next 12 months will be crude oil. "The market is certainly not bearish enough [on crude oil]," said the chief technical analyst at United-ICAP. Crude oil prices have been slashed in half in the past year and are sitting at 6½ year lows. "I`m looking for something between $32 and $25 a barrel by this time next year." That`s a more than 40 percent decline from Thursday`s closing price of $42.23.

To understand why crude oil has seen such a "dire" decline, you have to turn back to the financial crisis. "Look back to 2008 when crude oil was $150 a barrel, everybody saw dollar signs, the producers cranked up, and they invented fracking to get out more crude," he said. "It was those prices that led directly to the current collapse."

In order for crude oil and other commodities to stabilize, Zimmermann said there will be an "extended period of underinvestment" in which we are in the process of right now. "It`s about a year too early to be bullish on anything in the commodities space, especially crude oil," he said.



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